Poll: Voter cynicism remains a potent threat to incumbents across the globe

Voters delivered harsh verdicts to ruling parties globally in 2024, and history seems set to repeat itself.

The same electorate that ousted long-standing governments on both sides of the Atlantic—removing Britain’s Conservatives after a 14-year tenure and dealing a blow to U.S. Democrats—is now poised to decisively reject the leaders they elected just two years ago.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer risks losing his position later this year if a significant rival in Manchester triumphs in an upcoming special parliamentary election. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump, despite holding office until January 2029, is on the verge of becoming a lame duck as Democrats grow increasingly optimistic about their chances in November’s midterms, particularly in reclaiming the U.S. House.

According to The POLITICO Poll, the appetite for political upheaval among Western voters remains undiminished.

Building on earlier research by Public First, the London-based firm responsible for the survey, a new analysis of May’s POLITICO Poll findings reveals that large portions of the electorate in the United Kingdom and the United States harbor deep cynicism toward politics and consistently seek radical change. This indicates that the forces driving the backlash may still be strong, and simply changing leadership this year may not suffice to quell them.

In the United States, 71 percent of adults believe politicians prioritize their own interests, including 79 percent of individuals who supported Kamala Harris in 2024 and 71 percent who voted for Trump. Similarly, in the U.K., voters express anger towards politicians, blaming them for their inability to address various issues, such as the cost of living and immigration. Recent results from The POLITICO Poll, conducted over the weekend, show that 56 percent of U.K. adults perceive politicians as the primary problem in U.K. politics, while only 15 percent blame the political system itself.

The pervasive dissatisfaction has transformed into continuous anti-incumbent sentiment in recent years. In Germany, Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democratic Party experienced its worst national election outcome in decades, and Canada’s Justin Trudeau resigned amidst mounting voter frustration. Since February of last year alone, the leaders of Germany, Hungary, the Netherlands, and the Czech Republic have all been ousted in key elections.

Now, the U.K. is closely watching the Makerfield vote next week, which could determine whether Starmer retains his position amid public anger over his handling of the Epstein scandal fallout and voter concerns about immigration, the economy, and law enforcement. If Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester, wins a seat in Parliament next week, it could trigger a series of events leading to Starmer’s removal as Labour Party leader and prime minister.

The outcome could have transatlantic ramifications as Republicans face their own political challenges ahead of the crucial November midterms in the United States.

“What we’re seeing is a cross-Atlantic disconnect between voters and electeds,” said Kevin Madden, a seasoned GOP communications strategist in Washington and senior partner at Penta, a consulting firm.

“Voters in the U.S. are squarely focused on domestic priorities and kitchen-table issues like food, health care, and housing costs. So when the headlines are centered on foreign conflict and global market disruptions, it reinforces the disconnect.”

Deep cynicism in the UK spells trouble for Starmer

The rejection of incumbents in 2024 was fueled by growing frustration over the cost of living and broader economic concerns. Whether this backlash was a temporary reaction or indicative of an entrenched disillusionment with political institutions is a question now facing leaders on both sides of the Atlantic, as affordability issues continue to escalate.

In the U.K., the analysis from Public First highlights a profound sense of political disillusionment. The firm developed a series of measures to gauge this “anti-politics” sentiment, with cynicism standing out: voters believe politicians are self-serving, political rhetoric rarely leads to real action, and the public has little influence over political decisions.

Nearly half of British adults—45 percent—scored high on Public First’s cynicism scale; the same was true for 37 percent of U.S. adults.

The findings emphasize the challenge facing Starmer. New results from The POLITICO Poll conducted last weekend reveal that nearly two-thirds of U.K. adults—64 percent—don’t believe Starmer will remain as prime minister until the next general election.

The center-left U.K. leader has experienced the most significant drop in popularity of any British prime minister. Since securing a landslide victory just under two years ago, Starmer has seen his Labour Party fall to historic opinion poll lows, while Nigel Farage’s nationalist right-wing Reform U.K. has surged into the lead in polls and local elections, echoing the success of insurgent populists across Europe.

Among highly cynical U.K. voters, 75 percent hold an unfavorable view of Starmer, according to Public First’s analysis of a May POLITICO Poll, which is far higher than the national average.

The Makerfield by-election on June 18 will decide if Burnham, Starmer’s chief internal rival, secures a seat as Labour’s representative, providing him the opportunity to challenge Starmer for party leadership and potentially replace him as prime minister. Burnham’s main competitor in the by-election is the Reform U.K. candidate, whose victory would likely end Burnham’s leadership aspirations, plunge Labour into unprecedented turmoil, and send the national government into disarray.

However, the Makerfield by-election seems poised to be disastrous for Starmer, regardless of the winner. If Burnham wins, he will head to London to attempt to unseat the prime minister. If Reform U.K. wins, it will bolster claims that Starmer has irreparably damaged his party.

Why Trump should be watching closely

The situation serves as a cautionary tale for Trump, according to the Public First research.

As Starmer grapples with declining favorability ratings, Trump’s own approval numbers have also plummeted. The segment of cynical Americans may pose as significant a threat to Trump as their British counterparts do to Starmer.

Within this group, 57 percent hold an unfavorable view of Trump and his agenda, compared to 48 percent nationally.

This could spell trouble for Republicans heading into the midterms. Historically, U.S. elections penalize the party in power, and many Republicans are preparing for an even tougher-than-expected midterm landscape, driven by mounting economic concerns and an unpopular war in Iran.

“The biggest mood shift is taking place among voters in the big middle,” Madden said. “These are the same voters that gravitated toward Trump and the GOP in 2024 due to nostalgia for a Trump economy and a message focused on combating inflation.”

Many cynical Americans harbor negative views about the economy. Among them, 52 percent state their financial situation has worsened since Trump took office in 2025, and 59 percent believe Trump has prioritized international affairs over domestic issues too much.

Trump, who rose to power in 2024 largely due to dissatisfaction with the economy under the Biden administration, now faces a similar predicament. Recent polling indicates that voters increasingly hold Trump accountable for their financial struggles, even as he continues to blame his predecessor.

The challenge for incumbents is exacerbated by the fact that many people blame politicians, rather than the broader system, for their dissatisfaction. Nearly half of British adults, 45 percent, believe the country repeatedly changes prime ministers “because none of them are any good,” while only 26 percent attribute it to “big problems that not even a good PM could solve.”

Once leaders are elected by a frustrated and dissatisfied electorate to bring about change—as both Starmer and Trump were in 2024—the clock starts ticking.

“Elections are increasingly about which candidate can harness the frustrations of a cynical electorate,” said Seb Wride, head of polling at Public First, POLITICO’s polling partner.

“Republicans and Democratic candidates alike should pay attention to what is happening in the U.K.,” he said. “It is much harder to appeal to an antipolitical voter base when you embody ‘politics,’ and given how swiftly Britain is moving through Prime Ministers, cynical voters appear to be becoming more prevalent and less patient.”