Democrats desperately look for a redistricting edge in California, New York and Maryland

Democratic leaders are increasingly feeling the heat to engage in a burgeoning redistricting conflict that threatens to reshape the midterm electoral landscape — an undertaking that is likely to clash with both legal constraints and political realities.

As Texas Republicans charge ahead with an aggressive redistricting campaign aimed at boosting their congressional representation, officials in the largest Democratic strongholds are scrambling to devise a counterstrategy. In New York, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries recently conferred with Governor Kathy Hochul to explore potential responses. Meanwhile, California Governor Gavin Newsom’s administration has been in talks with state election officials regarding the feasibility and timing of a special election to challenge its nonpartisan commission. Illinois Governor JB Pritzker joined Newsom in discussions with Texas Democratic lawmakers on Friday, aiming to formulate a strategy to hinder the GOP’s audacious bid to create five new congressional seats, as per former President Donald Trump’s directive.

The dilemma is that Democrats have limited avenues available to them. After consulting with over a dozen state lawmakers and redistricting experts, it appears that California, with its significant number of congressional districts, represents Democrats’ best opportunity for redistricting. New York emerges as a second option, though past Democratic gerrymandering efforts have faltered. Illinois, already heavily favoring Democrats, offers scant room for maneuver. Options in Maryland and New Jersey are even less viable, given their combined four Republican-held districts.

This discussion unfolds amidst an internal party debate on whether to engage in the same ruthless tactics as Republicans.

“At this moment, it is abundantly clear that self-defense must take precedence,” stated Maryland House Majority Leader David Moon, who introduced a bill this week that would mandate an open redistricting process in Maryland if another state initiates redistricting before the U.S. Census. “If that’s the reality we face, then Democratic states should be poised to respond accordingly.”

Trump is spearheading a vigorous Republican initiative to redraw electoral maps, aiming to maintain control of the House during a potentially tumultuous midterm cycle. Efforts are already in motion in Texas to create five additional GOP seats, while Ohio Republicans seek to add more red districts during their legally mandated redistricting process. Punchbowl News recently reported Trump is pressuring Missouri to revamp its district map ahead of the midterms.

This entire scenario has ignited indignation among the Democratic base, yet Republicans remain optimistic about a midterm map enhanced by partisan gerrymandering.

“In an arms race where the goal is to gerrymander with fervor, there’s no scenario where they can surpass our seat count,” remarked a GOP operative, who requested anonymity to discuss party strategy.

Newsom has emerged as the most vocal among Democratic governors leading trifectas, pledging to counter the moves of Texas Republicans. On Friday, he vowed to “drive a stake into the heart” of the Trump administration by ensuring that Republicans do not retain control of the House.

However, the hurdles are formidable: Redrawing California’s electoral map would necessitate either a special election to restore map-drawing authority to politicians, despite voters having previously entrusted that power to a nonpartisan commission, or daring the courts to intervene if the Legislature opts to redraw the maps outright.

“I don’t think it’s feasible. The constitutional constraints are too numerous,” remarked Bruce Cain, a political scientist from Stanford who previously engaged in California’s partisan gerrymandering efforts. He emphasized that pursuing redistricting would ignite a substantial “political conflict” within the party, as it would involve redrawing districts where politicians have campaigned for multiple election cycles. “You’d be mixing different factions of Democrats into new districts, and the political implications could become quite convoluted,” Cain added.

Nonetheless, Newsom, eyeing a presidential run in 2028, has been laying the groundwork for action. He welcomed Texas Democrats to the governor’s mansion in Sacramento on Friday to project a unified front against Republican strategies, expressing that he is considering various options to enhance Democrats’ congressional representation beyond their current 43 out of 52 seats.

“Many folks in California might wonder what the politics of Texas have to do with us,” Newsom told reporters while flanked by Texas lawmakers. “The answer is everything.”

Lawmakers and political operatives who were initially taken aback by Newsom’s proposal are gradually becoming convinced that California possesses both the authority and the political will to counter Texas in kind. Sharing maps illustrating a potential Democratic gerrymander has turned into quite the pastime.

“I’ve seen a map that is legal, adheres to the Voting Rights Act, and could yield 49 to 50 Democratic seats,” stated Matt Barreto, a pollster and director of UCLA’s Voting Rights Project who has advised both the Harris campaign and the Biden White House. California currently boasts 40 Democrats and 12 Republicans in Congress. “This is a route lawmakers should contemplate if Texas acts first.”

In New York, Jeffries’ team recently engaged in discussions with Hochul’s office regarding the state’s House seats. On Thursday, Hochul asserted that “all’s fair in love and war” when it comes to potentially re-entering the contentious arena of congressional map redrawing.

“If other states are bending the rules to gain an advantage, I will seriously consider this alongside Hakeem Jeffries,” she remarked.

Even if state lawmakers pursue redistricting, the state constitution stipulates that such actions can only occur once per decade, meaning the process would likely extend beyond a year and may not conclude in time for the 2026 midterm elections.

New York previously attempted an aggressive gerrymander that was thwarted by the courts in 2022, resulting in a court-drawn map being implemented instead. Democrats subsequently crafted a new map that was notably less aggressive.

Hochul’s political allies express skepticism regarding the potential benefits of drawing new district lines. “I understand the frustration of those in New York watching Texas and Ohio exploit their advantages,” said New York Democratic Chair Jay Jacobs. “However, the constitution is quite clear that redistricting should occur every ten years. I’m unsure how one could interpret this as permissible every two years.”

Beyond Texas, Republicans are also eyeing opportunities to gain seats in states like Missouri and Florida, placing Democrats in a precarious position as they lack the flexibility to extract additional seats.

New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy was noncommittal when pressed by reporters about his plans for redistricting, suggesting that it may be “too early to make definitive statements.” However, he echoed sentiments shared by numerous Democrats regarding early redistricting: “Never bring a knife to a gunfight.”

New Jersey is hindered by its own constitutional constraints, which dictate that congressional districts, drawn by an independent commission, “shall remain unaltered through the next year ending in zero in which a federal census for this State is taken.”

Even if Democrats could navigate around the state constitution, they already hold a majority in New Jersey’s congressional delegation, with only two seats — the 7th, currently held by Republican Rep. Tom Kean Jr., and the 9th, held by Democratic Rep. Nellie Pou — considered competitive.

Even some last-ditch options appear to be off the table. Lawmakers in Washington, Minnesota, and Colorado have dismissed suggestions to pursue new district maps in the coming months.

“It’s simply not feasible,” asserted Washington House Majority Leader Joe Fitzgibbon, highlighting the requirement for a two-thirds majority in both the state House and Senate to reconvene the bipartisan redistricting commission.

Minnesota State Senator Aric Nesbitt quickly dismissed the idea: “We’re not power-hungry; we’re Democrats. We should focus on enhancing democracy, even if that means sometimes we don’t get our way.” Although Democrats control the governorship and state Senate in Minnesota, Republicans narrowly dominate the House.

In Colorado, “there’s really no debate,” noted former Senate Leader Steve Fenberg, who played a key role in establishing the state’s independent redistricting commission in 2018. “We find ourselves at a critical juncture where the threat is so significant that I don’t think Democrats should dismiss responding in kind. However, in a state like Colorado, it’s not really in our nature to engage in this type of maneuver, and it’s not constitutionally permissible.”

Nonetheless, as Democrats brace for a potentially tougher electoral cycle than anticipated, especially with Trump’s strategic maneuvers, redistricting is expected to be a significant topic of discussion as Democratic governors convene at the National Governors Association meeting this weekend in Colorado.

“I foresee this being a hot topic as Democratic governors gather over drinks or coffee,” Murphy remarked.