In Nevada, the cost of a gallon of gas is nearing $5. Meanwhile, Pennsylvania farmers are anxious about rising fertilizer costs, and in Michigan, supply chain issues are disrupting auto and manufacturing industries.
A month into the conflict in Iran, Republicans in key battleground states are confronting a new political landscape: the war may last longer than anticipated, with escalating costs both literally and figuratively.
The ongoing war continues to impact Americans each week. Economists predict high gas prices may persist for months, even if the U.S. de-escalates quickly in Iran. The prolonged conflict increases the risk of casualties, particularly if U.S. troops engage in ground combat, potentially alienating MAGA supporters who oppose “forever wars” and foreign regime change.
Some Republicans fear the war could reduce turnout among “America First” supporters in the upcoming midterm elections. Although not yet a political crisis, GOP strategists and county chairs express tentative trust in the president for now.
However, they find it increasingly difficult to ignore the consequences.
“What’s the end game? I don’t think the president has been clear about that,” said Todd Gillman, chair of the Monroe County Republican Party in Michigan. “The gas prices are a problem. We’re concerned how this might affect the midterms.”
A recent POLITICO poll indicates the president’s staunchest supporters still back the decision to attack Iran, despite some concerns it contradicts MAGA principles or breaks a campaign promise not to start new wars. The poll also highlights potential political risks if U.S. casualties rise or the conflict extends beyond the expected four to six weeks.
“I don’t think it’s going to impact Republicans’ desire to vote Republican, but I do believe turnout will be an issue,” said Craig Berland, chair of the Maricopa County, Arizona, Republican Party. “If the war drags on, that is going to impact the turnout, unless we are very, very successful in communicating and educating. And that’s our plan, to do that.”
The situation in Iran remains uncertain, and Trump could choose to withdraw U.S. involvement at any time.
Meanwhile, the ongoing conflict complicates the White House’s cost-of-living message, which voters consistently cite as their top concern. Recently, Trump and Vice President JD Vance embarked on a tour promoting affordability, highlighting achievements in lowering costs for working-class families.
However, the affordability campaign has stalled since the U.S. initiated its war in Iran.
“These types of major events can become all-consuming,” said Buzz Jacobs, a GOP strategist and former White House official. “They certainly suck up political capital, and they make it very difficult for the most senior officials, particularly the President, to focus on any other strategic objective.”
Recalling the invasion of Iraq, Jacobs noted, a digital board outside the Situation Room repeatedly listed: “Iraq, Iraq, Iraq, Iraq, something else, Iraq, Iraq, Iraq.”
The White House cites polling showing a majority of Republican voters support the Iran war.
“The President has been clear that, while there may be some short-term disruptions as a result of Operation Epic Fury, ultimately oil prices will quickly drop once the operation’s clear objectives have been achieved,” spokesperson Kush Desai stated. “America will be back on its solid trajectory of cooling inflation and robust growth thanks to this Administration’s proven economic agenda of tax cuts, deregulation, and energy abundance.”
In battleground counties, GOP chairs remain hopeful that the war’s impact will be temporary, even as gas prices approach a national average of $4 per gallon.
“Yes, it’s painful now. We all realize that it’s painful, with the gas prices,” said Carson City, Nevada GOP chair Susan Ruch. “I know prices are going to go up — but I do know this is short term compared to World War III.”
This optimism is echoed by Decatur County, Georgia, GOP Vice Chair Jesse Williard, who anticipates a quick drop in gas prices post-war, potentially leading Republicans to defy historical midterm trends with a strong showing in November.
“The economy, I think between now and then, is going to be great,” he said. “If it goes the other direction, it may be horrible, but I anticipate it’s going to be a red wave.”
However, some GOP county chairs foresee early fractures before November’s election, driven by rising costs affecting businesses and consumers. In the Phoenix metro area, Berland, the Maricopa County chair, reports increased difficulty in door-to-door canvassing since the war began.
“We’re even going around canvassing neighborhoods and registered Republicans are yelling out the door, ‘go away, or I’m calling the police,’” Berland said. “I find that very discouraging.”
Voters’ frustrations, he noted, stem from “the war or the economy. And the economy is defined largely by energy prices.”
Rural America feels the strain even more acutely.
Farmers in Pennsylvania, North Dakota, and other agriculture-heavy states are grappling with disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, driving fertilizer prices sky-high just before planting season. Some producers have been forced to adapt by planting crops less dependent on fertilizer.
This scramble could result in lower crop yields, potentially leading to higher food prices this summer, according to North Dakota Farmers Union President Matt Perdue.
Farmers, traditionally loyal to the GOP and Trump, now face an added financial burden, compounded by tariffs that have raised production costs and limited international markets for their crops.
“We’ve had just a pile of uncertainty, a pile of volatility in the markets that we buy from and sell to, and we’re just creating more volatility, more uncertainty as we move ahead,” Perdue said.
Last week, a coalition of farm groups — including the American Farm Bureau, often aligned with Trump — petitioned the White House for a bailout. The agriculture lobby is also seeking an ad hoc aid package from Congress to offset rising fertilizer costs.
Monroe County, Pennsylvania, GOP chair Pete Begley acknowledges the supply chain issues and high prices affecting his community. Yet, he remains patient with Trump, willing to wait before becoming concerned.
“If it turns into six months later, we’re still there, and the Ayatollah’s son is still supposedly in charge, that I think will cause concern,” Begley said. “But for now, I think people are standing by the president.”
