A new wave of financial players is set to make a significant impact on the upcoming midterm elections, disrupting traditional partisan lines and altering the dynamics of both primary and general races.
Many of these entities are new to the scene.
Recent campaign finance reports highlight the rapid expansion of diverse financial interests, including those from artificial intelligence, cryptocurrency, and sports betting sectors, which have collectively amassed substantial funds to influence congressional elections this year.
These groups have quickly ascended to become some of the largest super PACs in the nation, achieving this status in mere months or years. A pro-AI super PAC established in August boasts financial resources comparable to long-established party-affiliated groups, while a cryptocurrency-focused group, now in its second cycle, has surpassed traditional party fundraisers.
In the 2018 midterms, only five super PACs collected more than $50 million for the entire cycle, according to OpenSecrets, which monitors political donations. Four of these were traditional party-aligned groups. However, at least seven super PACs have already exceeded this benchmark, with the midterm election cycle just beginning to intensify.
The latest submissions to the Federal Election Commission for the first-quarter deadline on Wednesday do not fully capture the extent of the new funding, as some groups have emerged in recent weeks and will disclose their finances later this year.
Introducing the new players:
AI
The newest entrants include super PACs representing competing factions within the artificial intelligence industry, which have emerged recently and begun investing heavily in primaries nationwide.
The largest among them is Leading the Future, a pro-AI super PAC initiated in August. It received an additional $25 million last quarter from Marc Andreessen and Benjamin Horowitz of A16Z, bringing its total to over $75 million this cycle. Through a network of related PACs, it has spent millions on primaries in Texas, Illinois, and New York.
Despite its expenditures, the group’s cash reserves of $51 million are comparable to those of the Congressional Leadership Fund and HMP, major House super PACs typically leading midterm spending.
Another coalition of AI-focused PACs — Public First, Jobs and Democracy PAC, and Defending Our Values — collectively raised over $5 million in the first quarter. Their supporters include a nonprofit linked to Anthropic, which promotes ethical standards in AI and has clashed with the Trump administration over military applications.
Internal disagreements exist among AI-linked PACs: Think Big, associated with Leading the Future, opposes New York state Rep. Alex Bores in the Democratic primary for the state’s 12th Congressional District, while Jobs and Democracy PAC supports him.
Additional AI-related PACs, including one for Anthropic employees and another called ANTHROPPAC, registered with the FEC in early April and will disclose their fundraising numbers in July.
Cryptocurrency
Even more significant than AI spending, Fairshake, a pro-cryptocurrency PAC, primarily funded by Coinbase and Ripple Labs, had $171 million in reserves at February’s end, according to last month’s reports. (The group’s March report is due next week.) Initiated in the 2024 cycle, it quickly became influential, spending over $100 million in House and Senate primaries as well as general elections across party lines.
Fairshake and its affiliates, Protect Progress and Defend American Jobs, aim to support Democrats and Republicans who align with their cryptocurrency regulation goals. They plan to back candidates from both parties and have already invested in several contested primaries this year.
The Fairshake super PACs notably spent over $40 million to unseat Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown in Ohio during the 2024 election. Brown is running for Senate again this year, and another significant campaign from crypto groups against him could be pivotal for Senate control.
Another new cryptocurrency-linked group, Fellowship PAC, started in August, raised $11 million in its first quarter, with $10 million from Cantor Fitzgerald, the financial services company previously led by Howard Lutnick.
The influx of cryptocurrency funding coincides with the industry’s largest battle in Washington, as lobbyists and executives push for legislation to regulate the sector, facing opposition from major banks. Democrats have also urged for ethics provisions to address the Trump family’s growing crypto investments.
Other players and their impact
Having substantial funds does not ensure a group’s preferred candidates will win. The growing financial resources and new entrants might complicate the electoral landscape, especially when major players oppose each other.
In Illinois, Fairshake opposed Democratic Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton, who succeeded in last month’s Senate primary against two House members, and state Rep. La Shawn Ford, who won the Democratic primary to replace retiring Rep. Danny Davis.
In North Carolina, Democratic Rep. Valerie Foushee overcame a strong primary challenge from her left, aided by spending from Jobs and Democracy PAC and other external groups.
Other new entrants continue to emerge: Win for America, a super PAC backed by sports betting companies and established in November, reported raising $41 million in the first quarter, entirely from DraftKings, FanDuel, and Fanatics. It is currently focusing on state legislative races.
Traditional party players still hold significant funds: the Senate Leadership Fund, affiliated with Senate Republican leadership, raised $72 million in the first quarter and holds $166 million. The Congressional Leadership Fund raised $38 million and has $54 million in the bank.
Democratic super PACs also saw substantial fundraising: SMP, aligned with Democratic Senate leadership, raised $56 million in the first quarter and nearly $75 million in reserves. HMP, the primary Democratic House super PAC, had $53.6 million at February’s end.
Yet, the largest super PAC remains President Donald Trump’s MAGA Inc., which amassed $297 million since last year’s start. Its contributors include several cryptocurrency donors and AI executives, among other business interests. The group had $312 million in reserves at February’s end, but its spending plans remain undisclosed.
Declan Harty and Gabby Miller contributed to this report.
