Recent polling data reveals a noticeable shift in American sentiment, with many citizens increasingly attributing their financial struggles to President Donald Trump — a development that could have significant ramifications for political dynamics as the country approaches the 2024 midterms.
According to the latest findings from The POLITICO Poll, a striking 46 percent of respondents believe that the current cost of living is at an all-time high, a sentiment echoed by 37 percent of those who supported Trump in 2024. The poll also indicates that nearly half of Americans hold Trump accountable for the affordability crisis, asserting that it is “his economy” and that his administration is responsible for the financial burdens they face.
This data serves as a critical warning for Republicans as they gear up for next year’s elections. The very demographics that once formed the backbone of Trump’s electoral coalition are now showing signs of discontent, largely due to the soaring cost of living, which has become a prominent issue in recent political campaigns.
In recent months, Democrats have effectively capitalized on this growing vulnerability, particularly in pivotal races in New Jersey and Virginia, where affordability was a central theme. This strategy even contributed to an unexpected Democratic success in a traditionally Republican House seat in Tennessee.
“This is a small warning, but it’s one that Republicans need to heed,” remarked GOP strategist Ford O’Connell, referencing the Tennessee election results. Republican candidate Matt Van Epps secured a victory over Democrat Aftyn Behn by 9 points, yet this was significantly lower than Trump’s 22-point margin from the previous election cycle.
Just a year ago, Trump’s economic narrative helped him assemble a diverse winning coalition, driven by widespread dissatisfaction with rising inflation. However, after campaigning against Joe Biden, Trump now finds himself inheriting the economy he spent months criticizing. As anticipated, the blame game is shifting, and voters are beginning to direct their frustrations at Trump.
The POLITICO Poll, conducted by Public First, highlights a troubling trend for Trump: while he retains solid backing from the Republican base, his more moderate supporters — those critical for maintaining a favorable outcome in the upcoming elections — are growing increasingly uneasy. With affordability being a key priority for 56 percent of Americans, Democrats are poised to exploit this issue to their advantage.
“Republicans have historically enjoyed an edge on economic issues, but if the situation doesn’t improve, and costs remain prohibitive, voters will likely shift their blame to the party in power, which is the Republicans,” noted Arizona-based strategist Barrett Marson.
The juxtaposition of Trump’s economic challenges with the party’s traditional strengths signifies an evolving political landscape. Despite three-quarters of Trump voters expressing trust in the Republican Party over Democrats to tackle the cost of living, there is a noticeable divide between staunch MAGA supporters and those who identify as less aligned with the movement. A concerning 61 percent of non-MAGA Trump voters express discontent with the current economic situation, compared to 88 percent of MAGA voters who remain more supportive.
Even within Trump’s own voter base, approximately 20 percent acknowledge that he bears full responsibility for the economy’s current state. The White House, however, contests that Trump is losing ground, with spokesperson Kush Desai asserting that addressing Joe Biden’s economic legacy has been a priority since Day One.
Americans prioritize affordability, holding Trump accountable
Across demographics, affordability has emerged as the foremost concern for Americans, as highlighted by The POLITICO Poll. A significant plurality of 45 percent identify grocery prices as the most pressing financial challenge, followed closely by housing costs at 38 percent and healthcare expenses at 34 percent. This broad consensus underscores the pervasive nature of the affordability crisis affecting everyday lives.
Furthermore, 43 percent of Americans, including 31 percent of Trump voters, believe there are fewer economic opportunities now than in the past. Other indicators, such as a notable decline in consumer sentiment to one of its lowest levels on record, paint a similarly bleak picture.
While Trump has often pointed to his predecessor to deflect criticism regarding inflation and rising prices, the polling data suggests that this defense is beginning to falter. More respondents now attribute greater responsibility for economic woes to Trump (46 percent) than to Biden (29 percent), indicating a significant shift in public perception.
“Voters are unlikely to say, ‘I voted for Trump to improve the economy, but Biden hindered him too much.’ Instead, they will quickly redirect their frustration toward Trump unless they see improvements,” Marson explained.
This survey indicates that voters are becoming less patient with Trump’s ability to deliver on economic promises, with 1 in 5 asserting that he has had ample opportunity to enact change but has failed to do so. This sentiment is particularly pronounced among non-MAGA Trump voters, where 29 percent believe Trump has not utilized his chance to impact the economy, compared to only 11 percent of MAGA supporters.
Democrats are keen to leverage this shifting dynamic to frame the 2026 midterms as a referendum on Trump’s economic record, linking Republican candidates to his policies. Recent electoral victories for Democrats, driven by a focus on affordability, suggest that this messaging could resonate well in upcoming contests.
“House Republicans should expect to see campaign ads next year calling them out for their failure to lower prices and for their support of Trump’s tariffs,” stated CJ Warnke, spokesperson for the Democratic super PAC House Majority PAC.
Conversely, Republicans maintain that they are actively working to reduce costs, with NRCC spokesperson Mike Marinella asserting that while Democrats are preoccupied with internal disputes, Republicans remain focused on economic relief for the middle class.
Trump’s own messaging on affordability has been inconsistent. He recently proclaimed on Truth Social that he is “the Affordability President,” while simultaneously labeling the concept of “affordability” as a “Democrat scam” during a Cabinet meeting, claiming that he inherited an economy with insurmountable inflation and no affordability.
