Spot rates climb but lack support

Chart of the Week:  National Truckload Index, Outbound Tender Rejection Index – USA SONAR: NTI.USA, OTRI.USA

The National Truckload Index (NTI) — which indicates dry van spot rates — experienced a 2% increase last week, rising from $2.31 to $2.36 per mile. While this uptick alone may not raise alarms, the absence of typical seasonal patterns and the subdued response in truckload tender rejections — indicative of contract carrier compliance — (OTRI) renders it a more crucial development when evaluating the health of the trucking industry.

This week marked the seventh time in 2025 that the NTI increased by over 2% in a single week. Except for an unusual instance in February, tender rejection rates have typically escalated prior to or alongside these increases in spot rates. Usually, rises in spot rates that are not seasonal are prefaced with hikes in tender rejections, although there are instances when the spot market reacts first, leading to an eventual adjustment in the contract market.

The disruptions observed last week appear to have arisen from reports concerning enforcement actions on illegal immigration that have particularly impacted the trucking sector. A Serbian immigration attorney allegedly advised numerous foreign drivers against going on the road due to increased risks of detention.

Government statistics reveal that approximately 18% of the driver workforce were foreign-born as of 2021. Among them, around 60% are Latino from the Americas, while the remaining 40% primarily originate from Eastern Europe and India. Many foreign drivers, particularly those with temporary status, typically work for smaller fleets or as owner-operators, as they often reside in the U.S. only part-time, sending their earnings home to support their families. Larger fleets tend to prioritize year-round availability and are often more cautious due to language barriers and safety considerations.

This dynamic means that larger carriers — which dominate the contract freight market and greatly affect tender data — are less impacted by the recent immigration enforcement actions.

Conversely, the spot market is primarily comprised of smaller carriers and owner-operators. This segment is where brokers usually identify the best opportunities to maximize or safeguard margins by partnering with low-cost providers. Consequently, the spot market has shown greater sensitivity to the recent enforcement measures.

Estimated to compose about 15–20% of the total domestic freight volume, the spot market struggles to gain traction without support from the significantly larger contracted market. This raises questions about whether this trend signifies a real turning point or merely a temporary disruption akin to Roadcheck Week.

Regardless of how this situation unfolds, it underscores a more profound challenge within the truckload sector. Despite a decline in freight demand, both spot and rejection rates have remained relatively stable.