LAS VEGAS — As Democrats set their sights on reclaiming the Nevada gubernatorial seat, they are eager to link incumbent Republican Governor Joe Lombardo to the policies of Donald Trump. However, Lombardo is proving to be a slippery target.
Even with Trump’s endorsement in his back pocket, Lombardo, a former sheriff, has occasionally distanced himself from both the White House and his Republican colleagues in Congress. He has criticized Medicaid cuts, expressed concerns to Interior Secretary Doug Burgum regarding reductions in funding for wind and solar initiatives, and requested the removal of tariffs on lithium.
Democrats, for their part, have seized upon Lombardo’s reluctance to confront Trump directly. They assert that he has “refused to defend” Nevada following the Trump administration’s cancellation of a significant solar project, as noted in a recent press release.
With recent off-cycle electoral successes fueling their optimism, national Democrats have identified Lombardo as a prime target for the upcoming midterm elections. He will face either Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford or progressive Washoe County Commission Chair Alexis Hill. The contest unfolds amid economic challenges in one of the nation’s most working-class states, where blue-collar voters have increasingly drifted away from the Democratic Party.
“Our aim in this campaign is to finish what we started,” stated Joe Weaver, Lombardo’s campaign manager, during a mid-November interview. Weaver highlighted the governor’s efforts to advance his agenda, which has faced pushback from the Democratic-controlled Legislature, including a crime bill that raises penalties for various offenses. This bill, after much contention, was finally passed earlier this month.
Simultaneously, Lombardo has vetoed over 160 proposals from the state Assembly and styled himself as the “last line of defense” against “irresponsible politicians” during his campaign launch.
However, unseating Lombardo will not be a walk in the park for Democrats. Nevada has swung right in recent cycles, notably in 2024 when Trump became the first Republican to win the state in twenty years. Moreover, the GOP has surpassed Democrats in voter registration, a troubling trend for the latter, especially as they grapple with a tourism downturn—down nearly 8 percent compared to 2024, according to the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority—and economic difficulties that they hope will pave the way for reclaiming the governor’s mansion.
“The ‘Trump slump’ is a reality, and Nevada is the canary in the coal mine,” remarked Democratic Senator Jackie Rosen, who won reelection last year by nearly 2 percentage points, even as Trump secured a 3-point victory. She, along with much of Nevada’s political elite, has already endorsed Ford. “Healthcare and affordability are top concerns for voters… Attorney General Ford’s focus should be on these kitchen-table issues.”
Interestingly, the decline in tourism isn’t universally blamed on Trump. An October poll by Noble Predictive Insights revealed that 46 percent of registered voters attribute the downturn to the soaring costs of hotels, dining, and entertainment, while only 14 percent pointed fingers at political discourse or federal policies.
There are, however, opportunities for Democrats. Independents or unaffiliated voters form the largest voting bloc in the state, presenting a potential opening for Democratic candidates. Senators Rosen and Catherine Cortez Masto consistently outperform their national counterparts in popularity, and the state legislature remains under Democratic control. Notably, Nevada is among the few states with a divided triplex: a Republican governor alongside Democratic attorney general and secretary of state.
“I wouldn’t say the Republican Party has been particularly adept at electing candidates in Nevada,” commented Andrew Woods, director of the University of Nevada, Las Vegas’ Center for Business and Economic Research. “However, Trump has effectively connected with disenchanted voters and workers through his personality and messaging.”
Lombardo’s surprising victory over Governor Steve Sisolak in 2022 startled Democrats, with Trump later giving Lombardo partial credit for his own presidential win in 2024.
Yet, like fellow statewide officials Rosen and Cortez Masto, who have occasionally diverged from their party (as seen during the recent shutdown and on issues like blocking certain arms sales to Israel in August), Lombardo embodies a state where voters reward independence and prioritize economic concerns. Despite Trump’s accolades, Lombardo notably refrained from labeling Trump a “great president” in 2022, instead describing him as “sound”—a characterization his office later sought to clarify.
Moreover, there are significant policies where Lombardo has diverged from Trump since the latter took office. In January, Lombardo expressed that he disagreed with Trump’s mass deportation strategy, deeming it “not an appropriate policy.” When Nevada was designated a sanctuary state earlier this year, Lombardo drafted a ten-page memo to persuade the White House otherwise, outlining how state policies have been adjusted to align more closely with Trump’s agenda, including encouraging the Las Vegas police department to collaborate more effectively with Immigration and Customs Enforcement. Although he hesitated in December when questioned about mobilizing the National Guard for ICE operations, he later approved their activation in August.
Latinos constitute one in five voters in Nevada, and their support for Trump has increased; 35 percent voted for him in 2024 compared to 27 percent in 2020. Many Latino voters prioritize economic issues, jobs, and education over immigration reform, noted Nevada-based GOP strategist Jesus Marquez, leading to growing disillusionment with Democrats’ focus on culture war topics. “For decades, Democrats have misstepped in courting Latino voters,” Marquez asserted. Nevertheless, Latinos remain a swing demographic, having recently shifted back towards Democrats in Virginia and New Jersey, while a recent Emerson College poll indicates Ford leading Lombardo among Hispanic voters by 16 points.
Democrats are banking on their capacity to tether Lombardo to Trump’s less popular policies. According to the Emerson College poll, only 34 percent of Nevadans approve of Lombardo’s job performance, with 30 percent neutral and 36 percent disapproving—an improvement over the disapproval ratings faced by Rosen, Cortez Masto, and Trump in the same survey. A July poll revealed discontent among voters regarding Lombardo’s support for Trump, a point Democrats are keen to emphasize, accusing him of failing to stand up to the administration.
“Since Trump took office, we’ve only gotten poorer and sicker, and Governor Lombardo has made no significant inroads,” Rosen charged, accusing Lombardo of “enabling” Trump. “Our focus must be solely on the president, his policies, his censorship, and his move towards authoritarianism, while ignoring the real struggles faced by people,” she added.
Ford, the attorney general vying for Lombardo’s seat, echoed Rosen’s sentiments, expressing skepticism about Lombardo’s ability to counter the White House. “[Lombardo] has remained passively silent as Trump has wreaked havoc on our economy and has adversely affected the livelihoods of countless Nevadans,” Ford stated. He often highlights his own experience as a single father reliant on food stamps and emphasizes his intent to collaborate with the state Legislature to address certain federal policies.
In response, Lombardo’s spokesperson countered these claims. “Governor Lombardo has delivered tangible results for Nevada, including crucial housing legislation, historic funding for education, and the creation of thousands of jobs,” the spokesperson asserted. “He has no business lecturing anyone about prioritizing Nevada families.”
Republicans are quick to note that mere Trump-bashing does not constitute a viable economic strategy in a purple state. “Ford has always been the Democrat culture warrior,” said Jeremy Hughes, a GOP strategist associated with the Lombardo campaign. “I find it hard to believe he can pivot effectively.”
Hill, the alternative Democratic primary candidate, argues that associating Lombardo with Trump must be coupled with actionable policy proposals. She advocates for affordable housing and diversifying Nevada’s economy to reduce its reliance on tourism. “What we learned from the last election is that Nevadans require something to vote for,” Hill stated in a recent interview.
