While both Britain and America share a common language and historical connections, their political systems are distinctly different, which could benefit President Donald Trump.
As U.S. Republicans look to gauge the political climate before the crucial November midterm elections, attention is drawn to a by-election in Makerfield, England. This election could lead to significant political shifts, potentially resulting in Keir Starmer being replaced as prime minister. The contest itself is an early indication of whether the anti-incumbent sentiment that disrupted Western democracies in 2024 is still influential.
Recent analysis from POLITICO Poll results shows that British and American voters react to political frustration differently. Although political cynicism is common in both nations, British voters, who have multiple political parties to choose from, are more willing to leave their party for alternatives.
In contrast, American voters are largely confined by the two-party system, which limits how they can express their dissatisfaction.
According to a survey by Public First conducted from May 8 to May 11, only half of those who supported Starmer’s center-left Labour Party in 2024 intend to vote similarly in the next election.
Meanwhile, a significant majority of Americans, including 75 percent of Trump 2024 voters and 86 percent of those who supported Kamala Harris, plan to remain loyal to their party, highlighting limited voter movement in the U.S.
“We have a far, far more fluid system, I think, even than in the U.S., so people will switch parties,” stated Mark Shanahan, an associate professor at the University of Surrey in Guildford, England.
This fluidity could work in Trump’s favor as he and the GOP prepare for a challenging midterm election, driven primarily by ongoing economic worries among voters. While British voters who supported Starmer in 2024 can more easily switch parties, dissatisfied Trump voters lack such options.
Trump’s ascent to the presidency in 2016 was aided by a coalition of independents, disengaged voters, and those feeling disconnected from the political establishment, a coalition that also supported him in 2024.
Republicans, aiming to avoid a tough midterm outcome, warn that their greatest risk is not voter defection but voter apathy, leading them not to vote. Both parties emphasize that the election will be about turnout, particularly whether Trump voters will support the party when he is not on the ballot.
There is less concern about Democrats swaying large numbers of disenchanted Republican voters or attracting steadfast partisans, despite voters expressing a desire for change.
The POLITICO Poll highlights the deep-rooted cynicism and pessimism among voters in both countries. In the U.S., 71 percent of adults believe politicians are self-serving, including 79 percent of Harris supporters and 71 percent of Trump voters.
Similar frustrations exist in the U.K., where many voters blame politicians rather than the system for current problems. A recent poll by Public First found that 45 percent of U.K. adults think the frequent change in prime ministers is due to their inadequacy.
The analysis from Public First reveals a key difference in how voters in both countries express their frustration at the polls. British voters are more inclined to switch party allegiance.
In the U.K., the Labour Party initially gained power by appealing to cynical voters. However, two years later, it is losing support, with only 49 percent of its 2024 voters intending to vote for Labour again. According to The POLITICO Poll, 13 percent plan to vote for the Green Party and another 13 percent for the hard-right Reform U.K., with the remainder divided among other parties or undecided.
Shanahan noted, “Since Brexit, dissatisfaction has grown in what was never formally a two-party system but had effectively functioned as one since 1916.”
The Conservative Party, historically a rival to Labour, has lost ground to Nigel Farage’s Reform U.K. party. This situation mirrors the MAGA vs. traditional Republican division in the U.S., where the two-party system forces the GOP to remain united, while British voters can easily switch from Conservative to Reform.
This fragmentation poses challenges for Starmer, whose declining popularity has led to internal dissent that could unseat him. The Makerfield by-election on Thursday will decide if Andy Burnham, Starmer’s main rival, will be elected to Parliament, giving him a platform to challenge Starmer’s leadership and potentially replace him as prime minister.
Seb Wride, head of polling at Public First, POLITICO’s polling partner, said, “As U.K. electoral politics fragments, a few thousand cynical voters in each of several constituencies can shift a majority to a devastating loss. This is why Labour gained power in 2024 with fewer votes than in 2019, and why current models suggest they could lose their majority as quickly as they gained it.”
A POLITICO Poll in June showed that 64 percent of U.K. adults do not trust Starmer, and 62 percent believe he does not keep his promises. Labour’s significant losses in recent elections have led to calls for Starmer’s replacement from within his party.
While Starmer faces this internal threat from voters who once supported him, Trump and the GOP encounter different challenges.
In the U.S., even the most cynical voters tend to maintain their party affiliations. Among non-MAGA Republicans, who are less loyal to Trump, highly cynical voters are just as likely to remain with the GOP in the midterms as less cynical ones, according to Public First.
Wride commented, “In the U.K., voters dissatisfied with the main party have multiple alternatives. In the U.S., there is only one alternative, or the option to abstain.”
Despite early signs of Trump’s 2024 coalition fracturing over issues like living costs and the Iran war, when faced with choosing between the main parties, voters often stick with their previous choice.
